Publication date: 19 February 2026
EV model (Expected Value) is a way of calculating revenue in iGaming affiliate programs where affiliates receive a percentage not from the actual losses of players, but from the mathematical expectation of the casino’s profit. Simply put: the casino pays you not based on what the player actually lost today, but on what it should have earned over the long run, based on the mathematics of the game.
Instead of real GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue), the basis is theoretical profit. All bonuses, rakebacks, and gifts received by the player are subtracted from it. Your commission is then calculated from this “cleaned” amount.
The term Expected Value (EV) comes from probability theory and statistics. In gambling, it shows how much on average a casino earns (or loses) from each bet over an infinite number of spins or rounds.
The basic formula for calculating a casino’s net EV is:
EV = (Player’s Total Bets × House Edge) − (Cost of Bonuses + Rakeback + Other Compensations)
Where:
Let’s imagine that a player you brought in made $500,000 in bets on slots with an RTP of 96% (meaning house edge = 4%).
You’re working under the EV model with a 70% commission. Your payout will be:
$7,000 × 70% = $4,900
Important nuance: If the player hit a jackpot this month and the casino actually went negative — you’ll still get paid because the EV remained positive. Conversely, even if the player lost a huge amount but burned through lots of bonuses, the casino’s EV could be zero, and you’ll earn nothing.
In some affiliate programs, you might encounter the term NGR (Net Gaming Revenue) — this is GGR minus bonuses, rakeback, and other operational expenses. In the EV model, NGR is often equated to the calculated mathematical expectation or used as its proxy. However, the key difference is that EV is calculated mathematically (through house edge), while NGR is the actual post-factum revenue after all deductions.
Today, many affiliate programs, especially crypto casinos and projects with aggressive bonus policies, are switching to the EV model. You can read more about different payment models in affiliate marketing in our glossary. Instead of classic RevShare (a percentage of actual player losses), they use RevShare from Expected Value.
For a better understanding of the basics, we also recommend reading 3S.INFO article: “The EV Model in iGaming: Affiliate Programs Based on Expected Value”.
Imagine you brought in 10 players, each wagering $10,000. Their EV = $10,000 × 10 × 4% = $4,000. But if among them there’s one bonus hunter who received a $5,000 bonus and wagered it with minimal losses, the calculation changes: (total turnover of all players × 4%) − $5,000 (the bonus hunter’s bonus). If the bonus hunter’s turnover was the same as the others, they could wipe out the EV of all 10 players. This is why traffic quality is critically important in the EV model.
Some affiliate programs reserve the right to unilaterally change the house edge for certain games or providers. For example, they might apply a reduced house edge to high-RTP slots. Or they might not count bets on some games (like live casino) toward turnover at all. Always read the fine print before starting to work with an EV model.
Many affiliate programs use mixed payment models to reduce risks for both parties:
The EV model works differently with different game types. It’s best suited for:
Difficulties arise with:
The EV model is neither a death sentence nor a magic pill. It’s a tool that requires affiliates to have a deeper understanding of game mathematics and traffic quality. If you understand the nuances, you can earn more consistently with EV than with classic RevShare. The main thing is to test, calculate, read the terms, and choose affiliate programs with transparent conditions.
Not always. The EV model offers a higher percentage (60-80% vs 30-50%) but requires quality traffic. If you’re bringing in bonus hunters or tournament players who actively use bonuses, your EV can go negative. For traffic with good LTV and low bonus usage, EV is almost always more profitable.
In the EV model, you get paid even if a player wins a huge amount. The payout is calculated from the mathematical expectation, that is, the player’s turnover multiplied by the house edge, not from actual losses. So large player wins are the casino’s risk, not yours. This is one of the main advantages of the model for affiliates.
Yes, you can. If the players you brought in received many bonuses or turned out to be too lucky, EV can become negative. This is called Negative Carryover. Different affiliate programs handle this differently: some write off the negative at the end of the month, others carry it over to the next month, meaning you have to work it off before receiving new payments. Be sure to clarify this point before starting.
Usually, the EV model applies only to slots and RNG games because they have a fixed RTP and clear house edge. For live casino, blackjack, roulette, and sports betting, EV is more difficult to calculate due to variable margins and player strategies. Many affiliate programs either don’t include these games in EV or apply reduced coefficients. Always check the details in the specific affiliate program’s terms.
A transparent affiliate program should give you access to statistics showing the total turnover for each player, what house edge is applied to different games, all bonus and rakeback deductions, as well as the final EV calculation and your commission. If the statistics are hidden or the formula is unclear, it’s a reason to be cautious. It’s better to start with small traffic volumes to test the payments in practice.
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