For a long time, Kazakhstan was considered one of the most predictable and straightforward markets to operate in across the CIS. A mature betting industry had taken shape, major local brands were well established, and affiliate programs consistently generated traffic through SEO, PPC, and CPA channels. For many affiliates, Kazakhstan was the GEO that delivered quality traffic with clear economics, strong brand recognition, and relatively stable conversion.
In the spring of 2026, however, the market found itself at the centre of another wave of regulatory change. On 16 March, amendments to the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On Gambling" were passed; by 17 May, the new rules had come into force. Formally, the amendments are aimed at strengthening industry oversight and developing responsible gambling mechanisms. For affiliates, though, their impact goes well beyond legal changes — it reaches directly into the economics of player acquisition.
For operators, the new requirements mean additional obligations around player monitoring and regulatory compliance. For partners, they mean a shift in the unit economics of user acquisition — one whose full consequences may only become visible several months down the line.
Key Changes to Kazakhstan's Gambling Regulation
The headline change is a mandatory player self-exclusion mechanism. Operators are now required to check users against a government registry of individuals banned from participating in gambling and placing bets. If a player appears on this registry, the sportsbook or casino has no right to accept their wagers — regardless of the player's own wishes.
Such mechanisms have long been the standard in regulated markets. Tools of this kind have been in use for years in the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, and other regulated jurisdictions. The aim is to reduce problem gambling and restrict participation among the most vulnerable segments of the population.
However, any additional filter between a player and an operator will inevitably affect the size of the addressable audience. The impact will not be limited to users already listed in the registry. Tighter controls typically come with stricter verification procedures, additional restrictions, and a growing share of players who never make it to a first deposit.
In parallel, Kazakhstan continues to develop the tourism segment of its gambling industry. New gaming zones and projects aimed primarily at foreign visitors are emerging. The state is simultaneously restricting part of domestic demand while developing a tourism-oriented gambling sector — a model familiar from several Asian jurisdictions. The Singapore iGaming market is a relevant comparison: local residents face significantly greater restrictions on gambling access than foreign nationals.
The Reform Affects a Market Worth Nearly Half a Trillion Tenge
When new restrictions are debated, it is important to understand the scale of the market they apply to.
According to Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics, the volume of gambling and sports betting services in 2024 reached 484.5 billion tenge — up 31.4% year-on-year. In 2023, the figure stood at around 369 billion tenge. The market has effectively returned to the record levels of 2022, when service volumes exceeded 550 billion tenge. This is one of the largest segments of digital entertainment in the country, not a niche market.
What makes this particularly notable is that this growth happened against a backdrop of already tightening controls. In recent years, Kazakhstan has been steadily raising the bar for operators, strengthening financial transaction monitoring, and expanding state oversight tools across the industry.
For affiliates, this means the new restrictions are being introduced into a growing market — not a stagnating one. The rules are changing in an industry that was actively expanding and attracting more players. That is precisely why any shift in the rules has a visible impact across the entire user acquisition chain. For a full breakdown of how the Kazakhstan betting market works and where the money is right now, see "Betting in Kazakhstan During the 2026 World Cup: How the Audience Behaves and Where the Money Is Right Now."
Why a Shrinking Audience Affects Market Economics
In state programmes addressing problem gambling, Kazakhstan's authorities have set a target of reducing the number of regular gamblers from 350,000 to 201,600 over the coming years.
This does not mean an immediate near-halving of the audience. But the stated goal signals clearly that the regulator is prioritising a reduction in population-level gambling engagement. Where industry growth was previously seen as a natural process, the emphasis has now shifted toward limiting that engagement.
For operators, this policy means potential long-term pressure on revenue. For affiliates, it means rising player acquisition costs.
When the addressable audience gradually contracts while the number of advertisers stays the same, competition for every lead intensifies. The cost per click rises, SEO becomes more expensive, bids in advertising auctions climb, and the efficiency of standard acquisition funnels declines.
The challenge is that these shifts rarely happen overnight. More often, the market only notices them after several quarters — by which point acquisition costs have already risen and conversion has started to fall.
How the Market Has Responded to the New Restrictions
The first changes in audience behaviour appeared shortly after the new measures came into force.
According to Blask data, after the initial restrictions the market showed approximately a 30% uptick in interest toward licensed platforms. This was a logical reaction: some players who found their access to unlicensed services blocked temporarily switched to the regulated segment.
Within a few weeks, however, the picture changed. After the expansion of blocks and tightened enforcement, Kazakhstan's activity index fell by approximately 51%.
This figure cannot be directly equated with a decline in operator revenues or bet volumes, but it does illustrate the market's high sensitivity to regulatory change.
Additional context comes from Q1 2026 data. Over that period, Kazakhstan's sportsbooks accepted bets totalling 161.1 billion tenge, while player payouts amounted to 120.1 billion tenge.
In a market of this scale, even a modest shift in user behaviour can redistribute tens of billions of tenge in turnover between licensed platforms, offshore operators, and players who exit the market entirely.
Why the Cost per Lead Will Rise
Any regulatory measure that reduces the addressable audience will inevitably push up player acquisition costs.
When a portion of users drops out due to self-exclusion, additional verification requirements, or other restrictions, operators are forced to compete for a narrower pool of customers. To maintain previous deposit volumes, they increase traffic buying and marketing spend. Every available traffic source — from paid search to mobile channels — becomes more valuable.
As a result, the cost per lead in regulated markets tends to rise faster than in offshore markets.
For Kazakhstan, this effect may be amplified by several concurrent factors. First, a portion of users will become inaccessible through the self-exclusion mechanism. Second, the importance of identification and verification procedures will increase. Third, licensed operators will be competing for a narrower audience, driving up marketing budgets and auction bids.
For partners, this means revisiting familiar ROI benchmarks. Campaigns that performed well in 2024 or 2025 may show a very different set of economics by the end of 2026.
When the Market Will Feel the Impact
The consequences of regulatory reform typically do not materialise immediately. In the first months after new rules come into force, affiliates continue to see familiar click and registration volumes: traffic flows in, campaigns run, and metrics stay relatively stable.
The real changes become visible after several months. Players drop out more frequently at the verification stage; the share of users reaching a first deposit declines; average bet sizes shrink; and LTV gradually contracts. Revenue Share starts generating less income even when traffic volumes remain unchanged.
This is why many partners only notice the deteriorating market economics one or two quarters later — by which point budgets have already been spent, SEO projects have been executed, and media plans have been locked in months ahead.
What This Means for Revenue Share
For CPA partners, the primary risk is rising acquisition costs and lower conversion to first deposit.
For those working on Revenue Share, the situation may be even more sensitive.
Regulation affects not just the number of players, but their behaviour. When access to gambling becomes more controlled, a portion of the audience starts playing less frequently, more cautiously, or switches to unlicensed alternatives altogether.
This has a direct impact on player lifetime value.
Where a user might previously have generated operator revenue over several years, tighter regulation can compress that cycle. For the partner, this means declining returns from existing traffic that was previously considered high-quality and stable.
When assessing the market today, it is therefore important to look not only at current CPA or EPC figures, but at the long-term sustainability of the monetisation model. Payment models in affiliate marketing for the Kazakhstan market are currently being revised in light of the new realities.
Potential Upsides of the Reform
Despite the clear risks, viewing what is happening purely as a negative scenario would be a mistake.
From the state's perspective, tighter controls make the market more transparent, reduce political risk, and contribute to a more stable regulatory environment. For large licensed operators — those already operating under a valid gambling licence — these changes can also represent an advantage, since higher compliance requirements raise the barrier to entry for new players.
The history of many regulated markets shows that several years after reforms, the industry often becomes more consolidated and professional. France and Portugal went through similar processes — and both markets ultimately stabilised.
The positive effects typically emerge over the long term, while rising acquisition costs and lower conversion are felt by partners almost immediately.
What Affiliates Should Do Right Now
Kazakhstan remains one of the most interesting markets in Central Asia. But operating in it in 2026 the same way as in 2024 is no longer an option.
Partners should pay closer attention to FTD dynamics, EPC, and player retention — not just registration volume. It is especially important to benchmark current metrics against late-2025 results to catch trend shifts early.
Equally important is factoring a potential rise in acquisition costs into financial models. Using historical data without accounting for the new regulatory environment can lead to serious forecasting errors.
Finally, 2026 is a good time to think seriously about diversification. Central Asia continues to develop: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are already attracting attention from partners as alternative GEOs. Dependence on a single GEO is becoming an additional risk factor, even for experienced teams.
Affiliates ready to adapt to the new conditions should explore the current affiliate programs on 3SNET and the best offers for the Kazakhstan market — and sign up for the 3SNET CPA network.
How Regulation Will Reshape Kazakhstan's Gambling Market
Kazakhstan remains one of the largest regulated markets in the CIS, but the spring of 2026 may prove to be a genuine inflection point.
The player self-exclusion mechanism, tighter controls, and the state's shifting approach to gambling regulation are not destroying the market. But they are changing its economics. For operators, this means higher compliance costs and operational burden. For players, it means new restrictions. For affiliates, it means more expensive traffic, more complex conversion, and the need to measure the efficiency of every traffic source more carefully.
The primary risk is not the law itself — it is the market's delayed reaction to its consequences. By the time the deterioration in metrics becomes visible in operator and affiliate program reports, adapting will be considerably harder.
The time to analyse the impact of the new rules is now, while the market is still adjusting. A full overview of the Kazakhstan betting market and current audience analysis is available in "Betting in Kazakhstan During the 2026 World Cup."
